NKF’s Capital Markets group presents the Second Quarter 2020 United States Capital Markets Report. The statistics and in-depth market perspective contained in the report illustrate current trends with a focus on national investment sales.
United States Capital Markets Report
The Covid Crisis has presented a wholly unique challenge for commercial real estate in 2020 - its impact will be felt universally, but differently for each property type, each market, and each deal.
The second quarter offered further datapoints showing Covid’s unequal impact across property types – while total volume decreased by 68.2% year-over-year to $44.7 billion, industrial and multifamily fared better in terms of investment volume, followed by office, retail and finally hospitality.
Market pricing discovery remains limited due to low investment volume, but there is a clearer understanding of which property types will be more resilient in the short-term. With ample dry powder raised by institutional groups, many are actively looking to deploy capital in industrial logistics, garden style multifamily in Sunbelt markets, as well as select office product, leased by credit tenants and those in Covid resilient sectors like life sciences.
REIT pricing has provided a nuanced view of which real estate sectors offer more resilience – data center, industrial and life science REITs all have recorded positive total returns year to date, while both multifamily and office REITs have recovered materially since their lows in March.
According to NCREIF, rent collection improved across all property types in June and resulted in the following percentages of rent collected: 93.1% for multifamily, 91.8% for office, 91.1% for industrial, and finally 49.5% for retail.
The federal government’s continued support with both monetary and fiscal policy has provided the necessary backstop to avoid immediate economic damage and has helped equity markets return to pre-Covid levels in many sectors of the economy.
National and regional banks continue to lend on office, multifamily and industrial product, albeit at reduced leverage. GSE lending has also continued, as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain the government backstop to over half of the existing multifamily product nationally. CMBS delinquency has been largely contained within retail and hospitality, and new securitizations are currently underway.